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[Written during the 1996 Presidential election campaign.] We're in the season of politics, so here's a political question: Why are there only two political parties in the United States?
Most people are content to answer this question with something like "There's no need for more than two" or "That's just the way it is." But this fails to account for what lies beneath the surface.
Consider what could have happened if Presidential candidate Ross Perot had stayed in the Presidential race. [He later re-entered the race, but at a reduced popularity.] There's a good chance that none of the three candidates would have received a majority of electoral votes. If this had happened, the winner would have been chosen by members of the House of Representatives (with each state having one vote). In other words, a failure to reach a majority decision would have resulted in the final decision being turned over to a select group of people. Although this scenario might seem remote, the House of Representatives has resolved Presidential election ties twice: in 1800 and 1824.
The prospect of letting a select group of people make the final choice of a President is so unappealing that third political parties are avoided. This ensures that there are only two Presidential candidates and, in turn, this ensures that one of them will win a majority of votes.
Another reason for having only two political parties is that the Presidential voting process is based on electoral votes, not popular votes. Because the winner in each state gets all the electoral votes for that state, it's possible for a Presidential candidate to get more popular votes than hisher opponent and yet lose the election. Such a surprise outcome has occurred twice: in 1876 and 1888. If there are only two candidates, this is less likely to occur.
Some foreign countries have more than two political parties. Why? They have different methods of voting. As one example, the method of voting that was set up for West Germany at the end of World War Two was specifically designed to accommodate more than two political parties. (Interestingly, it was designed by Americans.) As a result, prior to reunification there were about half a dozen popular political parties. That and other foreign voting methods don't serve as models of fairness in other respects, but they emphasize that voting methods can set a de-facto limit on the number of political parties even in the absence of an official limit.
This example reveals that surprises - and, therefore, insights - can emerge when you look beneath the surface to understand a situation more clearly. (It does not imply that there should be more than two political parties.)
Now, consider a problem you're facing. Look beneath its surface to reach a clearer understanding of what's really going on. Some surprises and useful insights are likely to arise.
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